The Digital Book World conference took place in March and though the printed book was very much the prom queen, the four major American tech companies of our age were likened to the four horsemen of the Apocalypse of the event.
“Scott Galloway, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, took on the ‘Four Horsemen’ of Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google, at a bracing gallop,” reported Gayle Feldman from the Bookseller.
“The combined market capitalization of the Four was $1.3 trillion last year, and is expected to rise to $1.8 trillion this year; if you add Alibaba to the others, they would be worth more than the GDP of Russia.
“Galloway spoke of the ‘dramatic brain drain’ that has seen extremely talented individuals moving from top-tier brand companies like Proctor & Gamble, L’Oreal, Unilever, Estee Lauder, etc., to work at the Four.
“Facebook, he predicted, will soon become ‘the most valuable company in the world’. It spends 40 cents of every dollar on research and development – $6 billion alone this year. It is ‘starting to eat’ some of Google’s market share. And it controls Instagram, which is ‘the most powerful platform in the world.’
“Amazon, as we know, has managed to replace profit with vision and growth, thereby changing the game.
“Galloway said that in the next few years, Amazon won’t open hundreds of stores; it will open ‘thousands.’ It will also profoundly disrupt the businesses of UPS, FedEx, and DHL, with its plans for establishing a distribution company of its own.
“Google will not only disrupt cable TV; it or another of the Four will get into education.
What he conveyed very convincingly – and frighteningly – is how very big big really is.”
Traditional books persist
Besides from the looming apocalypse though, there were some more positive sessions at DBW. And one of the surprise transformations, according to Dominique Raccah, Sourcebooks CEO and Publisher, “is the persistence of traditional books.”
Danel Berkowits reported on Raccah’s session where she claimed that “Ninety percent of teens read physical books, and 40 percent read exclusively physical books. Children and teens are ‘not abandoning traditional forms of entertainment.’
Physical books, Raccah said, are “actually a social statement, ‘a point of view,’ ‘a way of expressing oneself.’
“But there is a momentum in children’s and Young Adult (YA) publishing that goes beyond just children and teens. Referring to the sector as ‘a freight train,’ Raccah said there has been 25-percent growth between 2010 and 2015. Moreover, retail spaces are actually building out their children’s/YA areas and adding real estate.
“At Sourcebooks, specifically, growth was up throughout the company 17 percent in 2015, and 23 percent so far in 2016. The breakdown in where Sourcebooks’s revenue came from in 2015, according to Raccah, was as follows: 34 precent children/YA, 30 percent adult, 17 percent adult non-fiction, 15 percent e-commerce, 4 percent other.
A ‘really, really complex marketplace’
On the final day of the conference, Publisher’s Lunch Founder Michael Cader started the sessions by giving a brief overview of how the book publishing industry collects sales data.
The primary takeaway, according to Berkowitz again, is that there’s a lot of confusion, or, as Cader said, this industry has a “really, really complex marketplace.”
The reason that the marketplace is so complicated and nearly impossible to get a clear take on according to Cader, is that the three primary sources for sales data in the States do not paint anywhere close to a full picture. “What’s more, the sources are difficult to compare and contrast with one another, as they track different things in different ways.”
“The Association of American Publishers (AAP) tracks print and digital, and numbers are reported by publishers. As Cader noted, we do not know what percentage of ‘the total landscape’ these figures represent.
“Nielsen Bookscan, on the other hand, only tracks print, and only from top accounts, and only in terms of units. In this regard, Bookscan represents the ‘inverse’ of the AAP.
“And PubTrack Digital only covers ebooks, and was originally started by Bowker, though is now run by Nielsen. These figures are delayed by three months and only account for unit sales, not dollars. As far as historical reference goes, the figures are great, but they are ‘not useful as a live data set.’
Looking at the numbers, Cader also noted that “the flattening of ebooks happened back in 2013,” so this trend that many observed in 2015 is not new.
The AAP ebook sales numbers are as follows:
- (2015 – $1.330-$1.360 billion (implied)
- 2014 – $1.518 billion
- 2013 – $1.449 billion
- 2012 – $1.483 billion
- 2011 – $1.045 billion
Four book startups to watch out for in 2016
In a forum called “Launchpad: New Players, New Platforms, and New Propositions for the Publishing Industry” were Katie Palenscar of Unbound Concepts, Peter Kay of NCVRS, Chang Kim of Tapas, and Chris Sim of Kadaxis. Kristine Hoang gives a breakdown of what their companies create and why you should keep them on your radar.
1. Tapas Media, Inc.: “In 1996, people actually read in subways,” Chang Kim of Tapas explained. “In 2016, everyone’s head is buried in their phone. We thought about this problem and asked, ‘How can we fix it? How do we put awesome stories on people’s mobile phones?’”
After studying the mobile gaming industry, Chang decided to create an app that delivers free book titles in bite-sized chapters and functions like a game. To unlock chapters, readers have to earn coins. Pointing out that reading levels have decreased, Chang hopes his app inspires people to have fun with reading.
2. NCVRS (pronounced “uncovers”): “NCVRS is Tinder for books,” says Peter Kay from the start up. “It shows you book covers, and you choose whether you like them or not. It’s as if a good book starts moving towards you, and bad books start moving away from you. Everything is guided by algorithms and social networks.”
This app doesn’t use a user’s personal data, but rather analyzes the titles they click on to make recommendations. “We’re always evaluating our books constantly,” said Kay. “Two thirds of the books we show in the app get rejected. That’s probably not unlike a regular bookstore.”
3. Unbound Concepts: Unbound Concepts is behind the Artifact platform, a program that allows teachers to identify the right books for students. Publishers can access information on readers that will inform marketing, product development, and distribution strategies.
“We started this project because editors are consistently asking questions about getting specific types of books,” said Katie Palenscar from Unbound. “We use data from publishers and have our own text analysis tool.”
4. Kadaxis: Chris Sim started Kadaxis out of a desire to use data science to improve the relationship between readers and books. It started off as a research and development experiment and led to the creation of consumer sites that allowed Sim to test out business models. He and his team developed AuthorCheckpoint.com, which gave authors tools to
market their books, and BookDiscovery. co, which used insight to make book recommendations.
Sim’s company generates revenue by offering metadata optimization, search monitoring, and using application program interfaces to power their insights.
What it takes to create digital learning products for kids
Ashley Anderson Zantop of Capstone and CJ Kettler of Houghton Mifflin Harcourt talked about what it takes to create innovative digital learning products for kids. While both speakers agreed that kids prefer physical books over ebooks, they argued that kids actually prefer digital products when they elevate their learning experiences.
To develop great digital learning products, Zantop and Kettler emphasized the importance of understanding how kids learn in the digital age.
“User experience is at the center of every digital product and, if you’re not testing it with kids, you’re not learning the right stuff,” Kettler explained. “User experience and usability are core to any successful product. Otherwise, it stutters and fails.”
Product developers should also have a thorough understanding of who their target audience is.
“Each market deserves its own customized content,” Kettler continued. “When we perform research with parents, we find that they’re not looking for the same products as educators. They’re looking for supplementary products that encourage playful learning.”
Librarians say kids prefer physical books
“During the ‘I’m a Librarian – Ask Me Anything’ panel, librarians and literacy advocates discussed kids’ preference for physical books, and the role of ebooks as supplementary reading material,” reports Kristine Hoang for DBW.
“The talk was moderated by Carol Fitzgerald, president of The Book Report Network, and included Richard Watson of Baker & Taylor, literacy advocate and teacher Donna Rasmussen, and Melissa Jacobs, who is coordinator in the Office of Library Services for the New York City Department of Education.
All panelists agreed that kids show a preference for physical books, with Rasmussen adding that kids love having the ability to touch them.
That being said, Jacobs noted that ebooks are a great supplement. “Though kids prefer physical books, book apps engage kids at a younger age. They’re an extension of characters and story,” she explained.
‘“Students and parents want us [librarians and educators] to be more current and engaging,” Rasmussen said. “We can instantaneously change and modify what’s happening in the classroom with these new technological developments.”
To conclude the discussion, the panel concurred that, regardless of future technological advancements in content, good books will always stand the test of time.
“Good books are good books and human beings [of all generations] grow up the same way,” Rasmussen affirmed. “Those books have appeal and always will. And kids are such loyal readers, so the fandoms are amazing.”
